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    高强钢氢含量预测及可解释性分析框架

    Prediction and Explainable Analysis Framework for Hydrogen Content in High-Strength Steels

    • 摘要: 构建了一个基于数据驱动方法的高强钢氢含量预测与可解释性分析框架,系统评估了人工神经网络(ANN)、支持向量机(SVM)、随机森林(RF)和极端梯度提升算法(XGBoost)4种机器学习模型在多维特征空间下的预测性能,同时进一步利用SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)方法开展可解释性分析,揭示12种元素(铁、碳、钼、锰、钛、钒、硅、铬、铜、镍、铝、铌)含量以及电流密度、温度、充氢时间、应变速率4种试验条件对氢含量预测的贡献规律及其交互作用。结果表明:ANN、RF和SVM模型在训练集和测试集上预测氢含量的均方根误差和预测波动范围较大,部分预测结果在2倍误差带外;XGBoost模型在训练集和测试集上均具有较小的均方根误差和预测波动范围,预测结果均匀地分布在2倍误差带内,该模型对高强钢氢含量的预测性能最佳。ANN和SVM模型的6个特征(碳、锰、硅、铜含量,应变速率,充氢时间)对氢含量预测的贡献相对均衡,表明预测依赖多数特征的综合作用;RF和XGBoost模型的1~3个特征(碳、锰或硅含量)的贡献显著更高,其余特征仅作为辅助信息,对预测结果的影响较小。高低特征值在正负贡献上混杂分布,说明氢含量与各特征存在显著非线性响应,并且预测结果受多特征间的复杂耦合效应影响。

       

      Abstract: A data-driven approach for hydrogen content prediction and explainable analysis of high-strength steel was constructed. The prediction performance of four machine learning models, namely artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting algorithm (XGBoost), in a multi-dimensional feature space was systematically evaluated. The explainable analysis was further carried out by using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method, and the contribution laws and their interactions of the contents of 12 elements (Fe, C, Mo, Mn, Ti, V, Si, Cr, Cu, Ni, Al, Nb) and the four test conditions of current density, temperature, hydrogen charging time, and strain rate to the prediction of hydrogen content were revealed. The results show that the root mean square errors and the prediction fluctuation range of the predicated hydrogen content by the ANN, RF and SVM models on the training set and the test set were relatively large, and some prediction results were outside the 2-fold error band. The XGBoost model had small root mean square error and prediction fluctuation range on both the training set and the test set, and the prediction results were evenly distributed in the 2-fold error band; the model had the best prediction performance for the hydrogen content of high-strength steel. The contributions of the six features (content of C, Mn, Si, Cu, strain rate and hydrogen charging time) to the prediction of hydrogen content of the ANN and SVM models were relatively balanced, indicating that the prediction relied on the combined effect of the majority of features. The contributions of 1 to 3 features (content of C, Mn or Si) of the RF and XGBoost models were significantly higher, while the remaining features only served as auxiliary information and had a relatively small impact on the prediction results. The mixed distribution of high and low feature values in positive and negative contributions indicated that there was a significant nonlinear response between hydrogen content and each feature, and the prediction was affected by the complex coupling effect among multiple features.

       

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